REPORT GUIDELINES
General requirements for the course:
Overview: The reports provide an opportunity to delve more deeply into topics from the course that interest you. You will read one or more supplementary article(s) and use this material as the basis for a persuasive argument. In order to satisfy the writing requirement, you will be graded primarily on how well you demonstrate concise, logical writing. Two reports are required so that you can receive feedback on the first one and have a chance to improve your writing skills.
Article list: Chose one or more articles from the list below. (In some cases, articles are in pairs and you must use them both. In all cases, you are free to choose multiple articles and blend them both into your analysis.) These articles have been carefully chosen to complement the course material. For example, reading these articles will help you prepare for the midterm and final exams. You are welcome to bring in supplementary information (other articles, web-based material, etc), but the focus of your report must be on the article(s) you select from the list below.
Writing style suggestion: I strongly recommend that you
purchase a copy of Strunk and White, The Elements of Style if you
do not already have it. This little book costs only a few dollars and is
filled with valuable advice on how to write clearly. It is a bargain and
a jewel!
Argue a thesis: Your report must be organized
around a central theme or question and it must argue for a particular point
of view. It is not sufficient to simply describe the
article(s) you read.
Required format for reports: Write a 5 page typed, double-spaced paper (approximately 1500 words). The paper must include the following elements:
Advice on how to prepare your reports: The overall report format has a repetitive structure (Introduction: "tell them what you're going to say"; Main Body: "say it"; Conclusions: "tell them what you just said"). This structure is known to be a highly effective method of communicating. However, it takes time and practice to craft an argument along these lines. You should begin by reading the article(s) and taking notes, paying special attention to things you don't understand or don't agree with. Next, go to the textbook, lecture notes, and other resources (other articles, the web, consultation with instructor or TA) to provide background information and to clear up points of confusion. Now you are ready to draft an outline and tentative conclusions. With that in mind, begin to write the Main Body, putting together the detailed evidence and logic that support each of your key conclusions. In most cases, your conclusions will change during this process. That is, as you scrutinize the evidence and think through the logic of your argument, you will find problems with your initial understanding. That is good - it means you are actually engaged in the process of critical analysis! Continue in this fashion - proposing conclusions and seeing if you can back them up - until you are satisfied that you have a coherent and persuasive argument. At this point, you are ready to step back and draft the Introduction - explaining to the reader what your theme is, how you investigated it, and (very briefly) what you found. Finally, go over the entire report, honing the writing style and making the sections fit together into a well-organized package.
Note the symmetry between the Introduction and the Conclusions. In the former, you spend a paragraph or two explaining your theme and your methods, then you very briefly state your conclusions. In the latter, you briefly state your theme and methods, then you spend a paragraph or two explaining your conclusions. Each of these sections should make sense if read all by itself - each should provide to the reader the gist of your report.
Target audience: Your
report should be addressed to a target audience of intelligent, interested
non-scientists (for example, a fellow student in this class.) Do not assume that your reader has prior knowledge of the
subject matter. In general, try to minimize the use
of technical terms and jargon and be sure to carefully define those terms
that you do use.
Grading: Reports will be evaluated in terms of:
LIST OF ARTICLES
Articles are grouped by where they fit into the course schedule.
*starred articles are required reading for the course.
<> indicates report for which pdf file is not available (you have to go to the library!)
journal locations in UW libraries
Articles labeled "Pair" must be read together for the purpose of reports.
Week 1: Earth System and Global Change
*Karl Popper, Knowledge without authority (1960)
Popper discusses the nature of scientific knowledge (and knowledge in
general).
<Jones, P. D., and T. M. L. Wigley, Global warming trends, Scientific American, August, 84-90, 1990.>
Is the Earth warming? What are the challenges to
putting together thermometer records over the past 150 years from around
the world?
Week 2: Earth-System Example - Stratospheric Ozone and CFC's
Skeptics
of human-induced ozone depletion
International scientific assessments of ozone depletion
WMO (1998) Executive Summary and Answers to Twenty Commonly Asked Questions
Review
article on the ozone hole phenomenon
<Toon, O. B., and R. P. Turco, Polar stratospheric clouds and ozone depletion, Scientific American, June, 68-74, 1991>
Week 3: The Science of Systems
*Mann and Jones
(2003) "Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia".
A short, well-written article that serves as a good illustration of the report format required in this course (Introduction, Main Body, Conclusions, proper citations, use of figures, etc.). Mann and Jones examine the paleoclimate record to address a critical question: is the recent warming outside the range of natural variability?
<Lovelock, J. E., Geophysiology: a new look at earth science, Bull. Amer. Meteo. Soc., 67, 392-397, 1986>
An early article describing the "Gaia" hypothesis - that the biosphere (life) can regulate climate for its own benefit.
Week 4: Greenhouse Effect
Week 5: Energy balance theory of climate change
*Lorius et al., 1990, Nature, The ice-core record: climate sensitivity and future greenhouse warming
An excellent example of using the energy-balance theory of climate change. Lorius and colleagues diagnose how sensitive the earth's climate is by looking at temperature changes and greenhouse gas forcings associated with the last ice-age.
An outstanding overview of global warming science and prediction of what is to come. As it is now more than 20 years later, the predictions can be tested to a great extent. How well did they do?
Week 6: Earth Circulations and Regional Climates
Gleick, 1994, Water, War and Peace in Middle East
How do climate and geography influence water supplies in the Middle East? How do water supplies, in turn, play into the conflicts that have plagued this region for thousands of years?
Week 7: Ancient Climates
*Hoffman, P. F., and D. P. Schrag, Snowball Earth, Scientific American, January, 2000.
Has the ice-albedo feedback ever gone to its logical extreme - a completely ice-covered planet? Only a decade ago, this was thought to be impossible (because, it was thought, it would have extinguished life and there would have been no way for the earth to recover from this state.) Recent geological evidence, however, has led most scientists to agree that this did in fact happen. This article describes the evidence for and implications of this theory in an engaging fashion.
Shaviv and Veizer, 2003, Celestial driver?
Our text (KKC) presents an overarching theory that greenhouse gases (CO2 and sometimes methane) are the main drivers of the earth's climate over its 4.5 billion year history. This article presents an alternate theory - that major climatic shifts are associated with changes in the amount of cosmic rays impinging upon the earth. These cosmic ray changes, in turn, occur on a 140 million year cycle as the solar system passes through the spiral arms of the galaxy. A creative and well-written piece.
<Ruddiman and Kutzbach, Scientific American, March, 1991, p.66-75, Plateau uplift and climatic change>
The formation of giant plateaus in Tibet and the American West may explain why the earth’s climate has grown markedly cooler and more regionally diverse in the past 40 million years.
Week 8: Recent Climates and
Climate Variability
Laut, 2003, sun/climate correlations: graphical errors
Do scientists ever fool themselves? A string of researchers over the years have claimed to see striking correlations between solar variations and climate. This has led to claims that solar variations (and not humans) are the cause of most of the climate variations we have seen over the past century. But are the correlations real - or the result of 'seeing what you want to see'? This article takes some time to read and understand, but tells an important story. If you like thinking carefully about numbers and graphs, you will find it richly rewarding.
Changnon, 1999, 97/98 El Nino was good
Although the press reported extensive damage and casualties from unusual weather associated with the 1997/1998 El Nino, this analysis indicates that the money and lives saved far outweighed the money and lives lost.
Week 9: Global Warming Science
<Hansen, et al., Global climate changes as forecast by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies three-dimensional model, J. Geophys. Res., 93, 9341-9364, 1988>
Detailed global warming forecast - e.g. how much the Earth will warm and where this warming will be concentrated. The predictions are now 15 years old such that they can be compared with observations. What came true?
Levitus, 2001, global heat accumulation in oceans and other reservoirs
A fairly technical article that expands upon the course theme of planetary heat balance as the fundamental driver of climate change. The author assesses the earth's major heat reservoirs (oceans, glaciers, atmosphere, etc) and how they appear to have changed over the industrial era.
*IPCC 2001 Summary for Policymakers
The latest international scientific assessment. The entire report (some 500 pages) is the authoritative statement of current scientific knowledge. Why? Because it is written, discussed, and reviewed by the leading scientists in the field. It is a cautious document that incorporates all legitimate criticisms and uncertainties. Here, in the executive summary for policymakers, we see what findings were considered most important.
Week 10: Global Warming Debate
*Azar and Rodhe, 1997, Science, targets for CO2 stabilization
thoughtful discussion of how to define "dangerous interference with the climate system"
*Seattle Times Pro/Con Debate: Does human activity affect climate?
Should this question be debated by non-scientists? at all?
Pair: Article cited extensively by "skeptics" and review of it
Mann et al. on Soon and Baliunas, 2003
Pair: extreme arguments by non-scientists
Congressman Inhoff Speech in US Senate, 2003
Monbiot, Sleepwalking to Extinction, Guardian, 2003
Week 11: Global Warming Impacts and Solutions
<Hoffert, et al., Advanced technology paths to global climate stability: Energy for a greenhouse planet, Science, 298, 981-987, 2002.>
Careful, quantitative discussion of society's energy options over the next century
Mote, P. et al. (1999). “Impacts of Climate Variability and Change, Pacific Northwest.” JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle, JISAO Contribution #715.
UW's own Climate Impacts Group (and our guest lecturer, Phil Mote) produced this detailed report on how climate change may affect the ecosystems and economy in our region. The library should have a copy. If not, see the instructor.
Pair: (i) List of geoengineering plans from National Academy of Sciences report and (ii) extensive discussion of the various options from a textbook. A good report would discuss the geoengineering concept in general and look in detail at one or two of the specific proposals.
Geoengineering options as listed in NAS report
Turco Chapter on Geoengineering (download in two parts): part 1 part 2