Numerical Weather Prediction Initialization/Forecast Evaluation

Plot Description and Frequently Asked Questions Page

In all cases, when looking at the summary pages, the red barb denotes an interpolated model wind while a green barb corresponds to an observation (whatever the particular platform happens to be).
For the observations taken other than at the surface, a number in either red or blue appears. The red number corresponds to an ACARS aircraft measurement taken at that pressure level. The blue number is the pressure level that is assigned to a cloud track/water vapor wind measurement.
For the surface summary plots, the yellow number is the mean sea level pressure error. In all calculations throughout this project, the error, e, is defined as: e={model-observation}.

An explanation about the Summary Error Scores and how they are composed:

These values are not available with each model run because not every day are each data set available.
Each number in the table is not representative of one error calculation from one model. Rather, it is a sum of several positive quantities (Root Mean Square Errors) from different platforms. Thus, the numbers can be large. However, since each model is calculated using the same error statistics, a relative comparison of the numbers between models is warranted. This is done to condense the information given by several data platforms into one number, summarizing the information. A table below outlines how each number is calculated:

Error Summary Score Type	Composition
Upper Level Winds	ACARS(300-100mb)+SATWINDS(300-100mb)+RAWINSONDE(100,150,200,250,300mb)
Upper Level Temperatures	ACARS(300-100mb)+RAWINSONDE(100,150,200,250,300mb)
Middle Level Winds	ACARS(300-500mb)+SATWINDS(300-500mb)+RAWINSONDE(400,500mb)
Middle Level Temperatures	ACARS(300-500mb)+RAWINSONDE(400,500mb)
Low Level Winds	ACARS(500-700mb)+ACARS(700-900mb)+SATWINDS(500-700mb)+SATWINDS(700-900mb)+RAWINSONDE(700,850mb)
Low Level Temperatures	ACARS(500-700mb)+ACARS(700-900mb)+RAWINSONDE(700,850mb)
Surface Winds	Surface, Ship and Buoy Reports
Surface Temperatures	Surface, Ship and Buoy Reports
Mean Sea Level Pressure	Surface, Ship and Buoy Reports