G. J. Hakim and R. D. Torn
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington,
Seattle, WA
Fred Sanders Monograph, 61, Submitted August 2004; Accepted February 2005.
Progress in synoptic and dynamic meteorology is often marked by the
advent of new or improved observing systems and novel methods for
analyzing and understanding these data. For example, deployment of the
routine radiosonde network and the emergence of quasigeostrophic theory
provided the opportunity to both better document and understand
synoptic-scale weather systems during the latter half of the 20th
century for analysts such as Fred Sanders. We propose that emerging
techniques in state estimation (``data assimilation'') may offer new
opportunities to analyze and understand atmospheric phenomena. We group
these opportunities under the title ``Ensemble Synoptic Analysis''
(ESA), which derives from the fact that the methods pertain to
ensembles of analyses valid at an instant (or multiple instants) in
time. Our goal is to outline the analysis techniques available to ESA,
and to demonstrate these techniques through illustrative examples.
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