M. R. Stevens and G. J. Hakim
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington,
Seattle, WA
Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 61, submitted.
Floquet theory is applied to the stability of time-periodic,
non-parallel shear flows consisting of a baroclinic jet and a neutral
wave. This configuration is chosen as an idealized representation of
baroclinic waves in a storm track, and the stability analysis may be
helpful for understanding generic properties of the growth of forecast
errors in such regions. Two useful attributes of Floquet theory
relevant to this problem are that the period-average mode growth rate
is norm independent, and the t$\rightarrow \infty$ stability limit is
determined by the stability over one period. Exponentially growing
Floquet modes are found for arbitrarily small departures from parallel
flows.
Approximately 70\% of Floquet mode growth in energy is due to
barotropic conversion, with the remainder due to zonal heat flux.
Floquet mode growth rates increase linearly with neutral-wave amplitude
(i.e. the ``waviness'' of the jet) and also increase with neutral-wave
wavelength. Growth rates for meridionally localized jets are
approximately 40\% smaller than for comparable cases with linear
vertical shear (the Eady jet). Singular vectors for these flows
converge to the leading Floquet mode over one basic-state period, and
the leading instantaneous optimal mode closely resembles the leading
Floquet mode.
Initial-value problems demonstrate that the periodic basic states are
absolutely unstable, with Floquet modes spreading faster than the
basic-state flow both upstream and downstream of an initially localized
disturbance. This behavior dominates the convective instability of
parallel-flow jets when the neutral baroclinic wave amplitude exceeds a
threshold value of about 8--10 K. This result suggests that forecast
errors in a storm track may spread faster, and affect upstream
locations, for sufficiently wavy jets.
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