Spatial plots of BC'd and uncorrected 12-hr precip (PCP12)




Optimization of the settings for local BC of 12-hr Precip (PCP12)

Optimization of Bias Correction Settings, F48, 00Z initialization

Optimization of Bias Correction Settings, F36, 00Z initialization

Best subjective settings (exp16) vs. optimized settings, f48

Best subjective settings (exp16) vs. optimized settings, f36




Experiments involving changes in settings for local BC of 12-hr Precip (PCP12).

Experiment 01: 1st try settings with "similar forecast" categories of 0.0, 0.01-0.10, 0.10+ CENTIMETERS

Experiment 02: Same as exp 01 but "similar forecast" categories of 0.0, 0.01-0.10, 0.10-0.50, 0.50+ INCHES
Experiment 03: Same as exp 02 but max_dist = 500-km
Experiment 04: Same as exp 02 but "similar forecast" categories of 0.0, 0.01-0.10, 0.10+ INCHES
Experiment 05: Same as exp 02 but "similar forecast" categories of 0.0, 0.01-0.10, 0.10+ INCHES and max_dist = 500-km
Experiment 06: Same as exp 02 but "similar forecast" categories of 0.0, 0.01+ INCHES and max_dist = 500-km
Experiment 07: Same as exp 02 but "similar forecast" categories of 0.0, 0.01-0.15, 0.15+ INCHES and max_dist = 500-km
Experiment 08: Same as exp 02 but "similar forecast" categories of 0.0, 0.01-0.20, 0.20+ INCHES and max_dist = 500-km
Experiment 09: Same as exp 05 but max_elev_diff = 750-m
Experiment 10: Same as exp 05 but number of "similar forecasts" = 11 and number of "similar stations" = 8 (from T2 optimized settings)
Experiment 11: Same as exp 10 but max_dist = 1000-km
Experiment 12: Same as exp 05 but max_elev_diff = 1000-m
Experiment 12, horizontal search emphasis
Experiment 13: Same as exp 02 but max_elev_diff = 1000-m
Experiment 14: Same as exp 07 but max_elev_diff = 1000-m
Experiment 15: Same as exp 08 but max_elev_diff = 1000-m
Experiment 16: Same as exp 12 except uses medians for bias estimation instead of means




UWME PCP12 Bias plots (all data displayed in units of cm)



BC, uncorrected, and bias grids for 2004-12-01-00Z init, f48, GFS
BC, uncorrected, and bias grids for 2004-12-02-00Z init, f48, GFS
BC, uncorrected, and bias grids for 2004-12-03-00Z init, f48, GFS
BC, uncorrected, and bias grids for 2004-12-04-00Z init, f48, GFS
BC, uncorrected, and bias grids for 2004-12-05-00Z init, f48, GFS
BC, uncorrected, and bias grids for 2004-12-06-00Z init, f48, GFS
BC, uncorrected, and bias grids for 2004-12-07-00Z init, f48, GFS
BC, uncorrected, and bias grids for 2004-08-02-00Z init, f48, GFS

Forecast hour 48, 10-day average multiplicative bias, Aug-2005 - Jan-2007, GFS only

Forecast hour 48, 10-day average ME, periods in 2005, 2006, and 2007, member 1 from the PHYSICS ensemble
Forecast hour 48, 10-day average ME, periods in 2005, 2006, and 2007, member 2 from the PHYSICS ensemble

Forecast hour 36, 10-day average ME, Aug-2006 - Jan-2007, GFS only
Forecast hour 48, 10-day average ME, periods in 2005, 2006, and 2007, GFS only


Forecast hour 48, average ME, 2006-10-30-00 - 2006-11-08-00, All members
Forecast hour 48, average ME, 2006-11-19-00 - 2006-11-28-00, All members


Forecast Hour 36, average ME for Nov-2006, GFS
Forecast Hour 36, average ME for Dec-2006, GFS

Average observed precip by 10-day averaging period [cm]

31-Aug-2005 - 09-Sep-2005 =   0.32
10-Sep-2005 - 19-Sep-2005 =   0.20
20-Sep-2005 - 29-Sep-2005 =   0.88
30-Sep-2005 - 09-Oct-2005 =   0.70
10-Oct-2005 - 19-Oct-2005 =   0.61
20-Oct-2005 - 29-Oct-2005 =   0.57
30-Oct-2005 - 08-Nov-2005 =   4.24
09-Nov-2005 - 18-Nov-2005 =   1.14
19-Nov-2005 - 28-Nov-2005 =   1.15
29-Nov-2005 - 08-Dec-2005 =   1.62
09-Dec-2005 - 18-Dec-2005 =   1.24
19-Dec-2005 - 28-Dec-2005 =   5.00
29-Dec-2005 - 07-Jan-2006 =   3.74
08-Jan-2006 - 17-Jan-2006 =   3.35
18-Jan-2006 - 27-Jan-2006 =   1.40
28-Jan-2006 - 06-Feb-2006 =   1.69
07-Feb-2006 - 16-Feb-2006 =   0.19
17-Feb-2006 - 26-Feb-2006 =   1.03
27-Feb-2006 - 08-Mar-2006 =   1.39
09-Mar-2006 - 18-Mar-2006 =   1.34
19-Mar-2006 - 28-Mar-2006 =   1.10
29-Mar-2006 - 07-Apr-2006 =   1.62
08-Apr-2006 - 17-Apr-2006 =   2.00
18-Apr-2006 - 27-Apr-2006 =   0.05
28-Apr-2006 - 07-May-2006 =   0.33
08-May-2006 - 17-May-2006 =   0.05
18-May-2006 - 27-May-2006 =   2.24

31-Aug-2006 - 09-Sep-2006 =   0.04
10-Sep-2006 - 19-Sep-2006 =   0.66
20-Sep-2006 - 29-Sep-2006 =   0.13
30-Sep-2006 - 09-Oct-2006 =   0.22
10-Oct-2006 - 19-Oct-2006 =   1.17
20-Oct-2006 - 29-Oct-2006 =   0.26
30-Oct-2006 - 08-Nov-2006 =   5.13
09-Nov-2006 - 18-Nov-2006 =   2.55
19-Nov-2006 - 28-Nov-2006 =   1.90
29-Nov-2006 - 08-Dec-2006 =   0.73
09-Dec-2006 - 18-Dec-2006 =   3.17
19-Dec-2006 - 28-Dec-2006 =   2.54
29-Dec-2006 - 07-Jan-2007 =   2.49
08-Jan-2007 - 17-Jan-2007 =   0.51
18-Jan-2007 - 27-Jan-2007 =   0.51
  

Last modified: Thu Aug 16 10:53:53 PDT 2007