 |
| Marta I. Krynytzky | |
| mkrynytz@u.washington.edu |
|
| arctic climate project | |
| motivations | |
| about AOGCMs | |
| what is the IPCC | |
| methods | |
| results | |
| summary | |
|
all contents copyright
Marta Krynytzky 2005 unless otherwise noted
|
The Effects of Global Warming in High Latitudes:
Reduction of Sea Ice
Methods:
Several different atmospheric-ocean general circulation
models (AOGCM) were examined in their predictions of sea ice
conditions. Twenty year averages were computed for the years of
1980-1999, 2040-2059, and 2080-2099. Next the 20th century average was
subtracted from the two 21st century averages to obtain the predicted
change in sea ice conditions for each model. By using twenty year
averages, shorter periodic events such as the Arctic Oscillation and
the North Atlantic Oscillation should not affect results. The variables
investigated are sea ice thickness, sea ice concentration, and surface
air temperature. Snow fall and snow thickness in adjacent areas will
also be examined because the conditions of snow on top of sea ice can
have varying feedbacks on sea ice conditions.
Models:
CNRM-Meteo-France, Centre National de Recherches
Meteorologiques
CSIRO-Atmospheric Reseach, Australia, Mk3.0 model
INMCM-Institute for Numerical Mathmatics, Russia, INMCM3.0 model
GISS-NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, C4x3
MRI-Meteorological Research Institute, Japan, CGCM2.32a
UKMO-Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction, Met Office, UK
 |
 |