New research led by the University of Washington analyzes the most recent ice age, when a large swath of North America was covered in ice, to better understand the relationship between CO2 and global temperature. It finds that while most future warming estimates remain unchanged, the absolute worst-case scenario is unlikely.

The open-access study was published April 17 in Science Advances.

“The main contribution from our study is narrowing the estimate of climate sensitivity, improving our ability to make future warming projections,” said lead author Vince Cooper, a UW doctoral student in atmospheric sciences. “By looking at how much colder Earth was in the ancient past with lower levels of greenhouse gases, we can estimate how much warmer the current climate will get with higher levels of greenhouse gases.”

Read more about the study on UW News