Publications since 2000

Refereed Publications

• Martin, S.A., N. Brenowitz, D. Durran and M. Pritchard 2025: Long-Range Distillation: Distilling 10,000 Years of Simulated Climate into Long Timestep AI Weather Models,   J. Adv. in Modeling Earth Sys., submitted.

• Cresswell-Clay, N., B. Liu, D.R. Durran, R.A. Moreno, Z. Liu, Z. Espinosa, and M. Karlbauer 2025: A Deep Learning Earth System Model for Stable and Efficient Simulation of the Current Climate.   J. AGU Advances, 6, e2025AV001706.

• Brenowitz N. D., Y. Cohen, J. Pathak, A. Mahesh, B. Bonev, T. Kurth, D. R. Durran, P. Harrington, M. S. Pritchard 2025: A Practical Probabilistic Benchmark for AI Weather Models. Geophys. Res. Let.,   52, e2024GL113656.

• Tierney, L. H. and D. R. Durran 2024: Underestimates of orographic precipitation in idealized simulations. Part I: Evidence from unidirectional warm-sector environments.  J. Atmos. Sci., 81, 1419-1433.    © Copyright 2024 AMS

• Tierney, L. H. and D. R. Durran 2024: Underestimates of orographic precipitation in idealized simulations. Part II: Underlying Causes.  J. Atmos. Sci., 81, 1435-1447.    © Copyright 2024 AMS

• Lloveras, D. J., and D. R. Durran 2024: Improving the Representation of Moisture and Convective Instability in Baroclinic-Wave Channel Simulations.  Mon. Wea. Rev, 152, 1469-1486.    © Copyright 2024 AMS

• Karlbauer, M., N. Cresswell-Clay, D.R. Durran, R.A. Moreno, B. Bonev, N. Brenowitz, T. Kurth and M.V. Butz 2024: Advancing parsimonious deep learning weather prediction using the HEALPix mesh. J. Adv. in Modeling Earth Sys.,  16, e2023MS004021.

• Lloveras, D.J., D. R. Durran, and J. D. Doyle 2023: The two- to four-day predictability of midlatitude cyclones. Don't sweat the small stuff. J. Atmos. Sci., 80, 2613-2633.    © Copyright 2023 AMS

• Metz, J.J., and D. R. Durran, 2023: Downslope wind forecasting: Easier with a critical level, but still challenging for high-resolution ensembles  Wea. Forecasting, 38, 1375-1390.  © Copyright 2023 AMS

• Lloveras, D.J., L.H. Tierney, and D.R. Durran,, 2022: Mesoscale predictability in moist mid-latitude cyclones is not sensitive to the slope of the background kinetic energy spectrum. J. Atmos. Sci., 79,119- 139.    © Copyright 2022 AMS

• Weyn, J.A., D. R. Durran, R. Caruana, and N. Cresswell-Clay, 2021: Sub-seasonal forecasting with a large ensemble of deep-learning weather prediction models. JAMES, 13, e2021MS002502.

• Metz, J.J., and D. R. Durran, 2021: Are finite-amplitude effects important in non-breaking mountain waves?  Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 147, 2691-2708.

• Haghi, K.R., and D. R. Durran, 2021: On the dynamics of atmospheric bores.  J. Atmos. Sci. 78, 313-327. © Copyright 2021 AMS

• Weyn, J.A., D. R. Durran, and R. Caruana, 2020: Improving data-driven global weather prediction using deep convolutional neural networks on a cubed sphere. JAMES, 12, e2020MS002109.

• Durran, D. R., 2020: Can the issuance of hazardous-weather warnings inform the attribution of extreme events to climate change? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 101 (8), E1452-E1463.  © Copyright 2020 AMS

• Metz, J. J., D. R. Durran, and P. N. Blossey, 2020: Unusual trapped mountain lee waves with deep vertical penetration and significant stratospheric amplitude. J. Atmos. Sci. 77, 633-646. © Copyright 2020 AMS

• Weyn, J.A., D. R. Durran, and R. Caruana, 2019: Can machines learn to predict weather? Using deep learning to predict gridded 500-hPa geopotential height from historical weather data. JAMES, 11, 2680-2693.

• Kelley, J.D., D.M. Schultz, R.S. Schumacher, and D. R. Durran, 2019: Can mountain waves contribute to damaging winds far away from the lee slope? Wea. Forecasting, 34, 2045-2065.  © Copyright 2019 AMS

• Menchaca, M. Q. and D. R. Durran, 2019: The influence of gravity waves on the slope of the kinetic-energy spectrum in simulations of idealized mid-latitude cyclones. J. Atmos. Sci.,76, 2103-2122. © Copyright 2019 AMS

• Durran, D. R. and M. Q. Menchaca, 2019: The influence of vertical wind shear on the evolution of mountain-wave momentum flux. J. Atmos. Sci., 75, 749-756. © Copyright 2019 AMS

• Weyn, J.A.. and D.R. Durran, 2019: The scale dependence of initial-condition sensitivities in simulations of convective systems over the Southeastern US. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc.,145 (Suppl. 1), 57-74.

• Weyn, J.A.. and D.R. Durran, 2018: Ensemble spread grows more rapidly in higher-resolution simulations of deep convection. J. Atmos. Sci., 75, 3331-3345. © Copyright 2018 AMS

• Menchaca, M. Q. and D. R. Durran, 2018: The impact of mountain waves on an idealized baroclinically unstable large-scale flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 75, 3285-3302. © Copyright 2018 AMS

• Durran, D.R., J.A. Weyn and M.Q. Menchaca, 2017: Practical considerations for computing dimensional spectra from gridded data. Mon. Wea. Rev., 145, 3901-3910. © Copyright 2017 AMS

• Weyn, J.A.. and D.R. Durran, 2017: The dependence of the predictability of mesoscale convective systems on the horizontal scale and amplitude of initial errors in idealized simulations. J. Atmos. Sci., 74, 2191-2210. © Copyright 2017 AMS .

• Menchaca, M.Q. and D.R. Durran, 2017: Mountain Waves, Downslope Winds, and Low-Level Blocking Forced by a Midlatitude Cyclone Encountering an Isolated Ridge. J. Atmos. Sci., 74, 617-639. © Copyright 2017 AMS .

• Light, D.K. and D.R. Durran, 2016: Preserving Non-Negativity in Discontinuous Galerkin Approximations to Scalar Transport via Truncation and Mass Aware Rescaling (TMAR). Mon. Wea., 144, 4771-4786. © Copyright 2016 AMS

• Siler, N. and D. Durran, 2016: What causes weak orographic rain shadows? Insights from case studies in the Cascades and idealized simulations. J. Atmos. Sci., 73, 4077-4099. © Copyright 2016 AMS

• Shi, X. and D.R. Durran, 2016: Sensitivities of extreme precipitation to global warming are smaller over mountains than over oceans and plains. J. Climate, 29, 4779-4791. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0576.1 © Copyright 2016 AMS

• Russotto, R.D., T.P. Ackerman, and D.R. Durran, 2016: Sensitivity of Thin Cirrus Clouds in the Tropical Layer to Ice Crystal Shape and Radiative Absorption. J. Geophs. Res., 121, doi:10.1002/2015JD024413 .

• Hills, M.O.G., D.R. Durran and P.N. Blossey, 2016: The dissipation of trapped lee waves. Part II: The relative importance of the boundary layer and the stratosphere. J. Atmos. Sci, 73, 943-955. © Copyright 2016 AMS

• Durran, D.R. and J.A. Weyn, 2016: Thunderstorms don't get butterflies. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97, 237-243. Supplemental material. © Copyright 2016 AMS
  

• Shi, X. and D.R. Durran, 2015: Estimating the Response of Extreme Precipitation over Mid-latitude Mountains to Global Warming. J. Climate, 28, 4246-4262. © Copyright 2015 AMS

• Durran, D.R., M.O.G. Hills, and P.N. Blossey, 2015: The dissipation of trapped lee waves. Part I: Leakage of inviscid waves into the stratosphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 1569-1584. © Copyright 2015 AMS

• Siler, N. and D. Durran, 2015: Assessing the impact of the tropopause on mountain waves and orographic precipitation using linear theory and numerical simulations. J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 803-820. © Copyright 2015 AMS

• Dinh, T., S. Fueglistaer, D. Durran and T. Ackerman, 2014: Cirrus and water vapour transport in the tropical tropopause layer –- Part 2: Roles of ice nucleation and sedimentation, cloud dynamics, and moisture conditions. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 12225-12236.
  

• Durran, D.R. and M.A. Gingrich, 2014: Atmospheric Predictability: Why Butterflies Are Not of Practical Importance. J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 2476-2488. © Copyright 2014 AMS Errata: please see this Corrigendum

• Shi, X. and D.R. Durran, 2014: The Response of Orographic Precipitation over Idealized Mid-Latitude Mountains Due to Global Increases in CO2. J. Climate, 27, 3938-3956. © Copyright 2014 AMS .

• Hills, M.O.G., and D.R. Durran, 2014: Quantifying moisture perturbations leading to stacked lenticular clouds. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 140, 2013-2016, DOI:10.1002/qj.2272 © Copyright 2013 Royal Meteorological Society .

• Durran, D.R. and D.M.W. Frierson, 2013: Condensation, atmospheric motion , and cold beer. Phys. Today, 66, 74-75. © Copyright 2013 Physics Today. (Supplementary material is here, and here is a related YouTube video)

• Durran, D.R., P.A. Reinecke and J.D. Doyle, 2013: Large-Scale Errors and Mesoscale Predictability in Pacific Northwest Snowstorms. J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 1470-1487. © Copyright 2013 AMS

• Siler N., G. Roe and D. Durran, 2013: On the dynamical causes of variability in the rain-shadow effect: a case study of the Washington Cascades. J. Hydrometeor., 14, 122-139. © Copyright 2013 AMS

• Dinh, P.-T, D.R. Durran and T. Ackerman, 2012: Cirrus and water vapor transport in the tropical tropopause layer: a modeling study Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 9799–9815.

• Hills, M.O.G., and D.R. Durran, 2012: Nonstationary trapped lee waves generated by the passage of an isolated-jet. J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 3040-3059. © Copyright 2012 AMS

• Durran, D.R., and P.N. Blossey, 2012: Implicit-Explicit Multistep Methods for Fast-Wave Slow-Wave Problems. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 1307-1325. Errata: please see this Corrigendum © Copyright 2012 AMS. Correction to eqn (16) and further derivations by Prof. Keiichi Ishioka.

• Dinh, T., and D.R. Durran, 2012: A hybrid bin scheme to solve the condensation/evaporation equation using a cubic distribution function. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 1003–1011.

• Minder, J.R., D.R. Durran, G.H. Roe, 2011: Mesoscale Controls on the Mountainside Snow-line. J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 2107-2127. © Copyright 2011 AMS.

• Harris, L.M. and D.R. Durran, 2010: An idealized comparison of one-way and two-way grid nesting. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 2174-2187. © Copyright 2010 AMS.

• Dinh, P.-T, D.R. Durran and T. Ackerman, 2010: The maintenance of tropical tropopause layer cirrus. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D02104, doi:10.1029/2009JD012735.

• Reinecke, P.A., and D. R. Durran, 2009: Initial condition sensitivities and the predictability of downslope winds.J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 3401-3418. © Copyright 2009 AMS.

• Durran, D.R., P.-T. Dinh, M. Ammerman, and T. Ackerman, 2009: The mesoscale dynamics of thin tropical tropopause cirrus. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 2859-2873. © Copyright 2009 AMS.

• Durran, D.R., 2009: Comment on: Gravity wave refraction by three-dimensionally varying winds and the global transport of angular momentum, J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 2150-2152. © Copyright 2009 AMS.

• Reinecke, P.A., and D. R. Durran, 2009: The over-amplification of gravity waves in numerical solutions to flow over topography. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 1533-1549. © Copyright 2009 AMS.

• Maric, T. and D.R. Durran, 2009: Observations of gap flow in the Wipp Valley on 20 October 1999: Evidence of subsidence J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 984-1001. © Copyright 2009 AMS.

• Minder, J.R., D.R. Durran, G.H. Roe and A.M. Anders, 2008: The climatology of small-scale precipitation over the Olympic mountains: Patterns and processes. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 134, 817-839. © Copyright 2008 Royal Meteorological Society e

• Blossey, P.N. and D.R. Durran, 2008: Selective monotonicity preservation in scalar advection. J. Computational Physics, 227, 5160-5183.

• Durran, D.R., 2008: A physically motivated approach for filtering acoustic waves from the equations governing compressible stratified flow. J. Fluid Mech., 601, 365-379. © Copyright 2008 Cambridge University Press.

• Reinecke, P.A., and D. R. Durran, 2008: Estimating topographic blocking using a Froude number when the static stability is non-uniform. J. Atmos. Sci., 65, 1035-1048. © Copyright 2008 AMS.

• Polagye, B., P. Malte, M. Kawase and D. Durran, 2008: Effect of large-scale kinetic power extraction on time-dependent estuaries. Proc. IMechE, 222, Part A: J. Power and Energy, 471-484. DOI:10.1243/09576509JPE519

• Durran, D.R., and A. Arakawa, 2007: Generalizing the Boussinesq Approximation to Stratified Compressible Flow. Comptes Rendus Mecanique, 355, 655-664 (DOI: 10.1016/j.crme.2007.08.010)

• Doyle , J.D., and D.R. Durran, 2007: Rotor and Sub-Rotor Dynamics in the Lee of Three-Dimensional Terrain. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 4202-4221. © Copyright 2007 AMS.

• Chen, C.-C., G.J. Hakim, and D.R. Durran 2007: Transient Mountain Waves and Their Interaction with Large Scales. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 2378-2400.© Copyright 2007 AMS.

• Anders, A.M., G.H. Roe, D.R. Durran and J.R. Minder, 2007: Small-scale spatial gradients in climatological precipitation on the Olympic Pennisula. J. Hydrometeor., 8, 1068-1081. © Copyright 2007 AMS.
  
  
• Mayr, G.J., L. Armi, A. Gohm, G. Zangl, D.R. Durran, C. Flamant, S. Gabersek, S. Mobbs, A. Ross and M. Weissmann, 2007: Gap flows: results from the Mesoscale Alpine Programme MAP. Q. J. R. Meteor. Soc., 133, 881-896. © Copyright 2007 Royal Meteorological Society

• Kirshbaum, D.J., G.H. Bryan, R. Rotunno, and D.R. Durran, 2007: The triggering of orographic rainbands by small-scale topography. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 1530-1549.© Copyright 2007 AMS.

• Stiperski, I., I. Kavcic, B. Grisogono, and D.R. Durran, 2007: Including Coriolis effects in the Prandtl model for katabatic flow. Q. J. R. Meteor. Soc., 133, 101-106. © Copyright 2007 Royal Meteorological Society

• Gabersek, S.A. and D.R. Durran, 2006: The dynamics of gap flow over idealized topography: Part II. Effects of rotation and surface friction. J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 2720-2739. © Copyright 2006 AMS.

• Chen, C.-C., D.R. Durran and G.J. Hakim, 2005: Mountain-wave momentum flux in an evolving synoptic-scale flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 3213-3231. © Copyright 2005 AMS.

• Kirshbaum, D. J.,  and D. R. Durran, 2005: Atmospheric factors governing banded orographic convection. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 3758-3774. © Copyright 2005 AMS.

• Kirshbaum, D. J.,  and D. R. Durran, 2005: Observations and modeling of banded orographic convection. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 1463-1479. © Copyright 2005 AMS.

• Mullendore, G.L., D.R. Durran and J. R. Holton, 2005: Cross-tropopause tracer transport in midlatitude convection. J. Geophys. Res., 110, D06113, doi:10.1029/2004JD005059. © 2005 Copyright American Geophysical Union.

• Durran. D.R. and C. Bretherton, 2004: Comments on "The roles of the horizontal component of the Earth's angular velocity in nonhydrostatic linear models. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 1982-1986 © Copyright 2004 AMS.

• Anders, A.M., G.H Roe and D.R. Durran, 2004: Precipitation and the form of mountain ranges. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 498-499 © Copyright 2004 AMS.

• Gabersek, S.A. and D.R. Durran, 2004: The dynamics of gap flow over idealized topography: Part I. Forcing by large-scale winds in the nonrotating limit. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 2846-2862. © Copyright 2004 AMS.

• Doyle, J.D., and D.R. Durran, 2004: Recent Developments in the Theory of Atmospheric Rotors. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 11-16. © Copyright 2004 AMS.

• D.R. Durran and P.A. Reinecke, 2004: Instability in a class of explicit two-time level semi-Lagrangian schemes. Q. J. R. Meteor. Soc., 130, 365-369. © Copyright 2004 Royal Meteorological Society

• Kirshbaum, D. J.,  and D. R. Durran, 2004: Factors Governing Cellular Convection in Orographic Precipitation. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 682-698. © Copyright 2004 AMS.

• Durran, D.R., T. Maric, R.M. Banta, L.S. Darby,  and R.M. Hardesty, 2003: A comparison of ground-based Doppler lidar and airborne in situ wind observations above complex terrain. Q. J. R. Meteor. Soc., 129, 693-713. © Copyright 2004 Royal Meteorological Society

• Doyle, J.D., and D.R. Durran, 2002: The Dynamics of Mountain-Wave Induced Rotors.  J. Atmos. Sci., 59, 186-201. © Copyright 2002 AMS.

• Epifanio, C.C., and D.R. Durran, 2002: Lee vortex formation in free-slip stratified flow over ridges. Part I: Comparison of weakly nonlinear inviscid theory and fully nonlinear viscous simulations. J. Atmos. Sci.,  59, 1153-1165. © Copyright 2002 AMS.

• Epifanio, C.C., and D.R. Durran, 2002: Lee vortex formation in free-slip stratified flow over ridges. Part II: Mechanisms of vorticity and PV production in nonlinear viscous wakes.  J. Atmos. Sci., 59, 1166-1181. © Copyright 2002 AMS.

• Durran, D.R., 2001: Open Boundary Conditions: Fact and Fiction. IUTAM Symposium on Advances in Mathematical Modelling of Atmosphere and Ocean Dynamics, P.F. Hodnett, Ed., Kluwer Academic Publishers, pp. 1-18. (postscript version)

• Piani, C., and D. Durran, 2001: A numerical study of stratospheric gravity waves triggered by squall lines observed during the TOGA-COARE and COPT-81 experiments. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 3702-3721. © Copyright 2001 AMS.

• Epifanio, C.C., and D.R. Durran, 2001: Three-dimensional effects in high-drag-state flows over long ridges.  J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 1051-1065. © Copyright 2001 AMS.

• Durran, D.R., 2000: Small-amplitude coastally trapped disturbances and the reduced-gravity shallow-water approximation. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 126, 2671-2689. © Copyright 2004 Royal Meteorological Society

• Piani, C., D. Durran, M.J. Alexander and J.R. Holton, 2000: A numerical study of three dimensional gravity waves triggered by deep tropical convection. J. Atmos. Sci., 57, 3689-3702. © Copyright 2000 AMS.

• Durran, D.R., 2000: Wave propagation in quadratic-finite-element approximations to hyperbolic equations J. Comp. Phys., 159, 448-455

• Pandya, R.E., D.R. Durran and M.L. Weisman, 2000: The influence of convective thermal forcing on the mesoscale circulation around three-dimensional squall lines. J. Atmos. Sci., 57, 29-45, © Copyright 2000 AMS.

arXiv Preprints

• Jaideep Pathak, Yair Cohen, Piyush Garg, Peter Harrington, Noah Brenowitz, Dale Durran, Morteza Mardani, Arash Vahdat, Shaoming Xu, Karthik Kashinath, Michael Pritchard, 2024: Kilometer-Scale Convection Allowing Model Emulation using Generative Diffusion Modeling

• Chenggong Wang, Michael S. Pritchard, Noah Brenowitz, Yair Cohen, Boris Bonev, Thorsten Kurth, Dale Durran, Jaideep Pathak, 2024: Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Dynamics in a Machine Learning Earth System Model

• Jason Stock, Jaideep Pathak, Yair Cohen, Mike Pritchard, Piyush Garg, Dale Durran, Morteza Mardani, Noah Brenowitz, 2024: DiffObs: Generative Diffusion for Global Forecasting of Satellite Observations

• Noah D. Brenowitz, Yair Cohen, Jaideep Pathak, Ankur Mahesh, Boris Bonev, Thorsten Kurth, Dale R. Durran, Peter Harrington, Michael S. Pritchard, 2024: A Practical Probabilistic Benchmark for AI Weather Models

Older Papers with Errata corrected

• Durran D.R., 1988: On a physical mechanism for Rossby wave propagation. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 4020-4022, © Copyright 1989 AMS. Errata: Figure 2 is corrected on this pdf.

• Durran D.R., and J.B. Klemp 1982: On the effects of moisture on the Brunt-Vaisala frequency. J. Atmos. Sci., 39, 2152-2158, © Copyright 1982 AMS. Errata: Correction to Equation (21)